International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

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Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics

Received: 26 May 2022    Accepted: 17 June 2022    Published: 27 June 2022
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Abstract

Background: The seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually ascribed to the seasonality of Northern Hemisphere vegetation, and the seasonal cycle of methane is usually ascribed to seasonal removal by the hydroxyl radical. Objective: We test an alternative, that the cycles of these greenhouse gases might be linked to sea ice dynamics. Method: Time-series analysis of carbon dioxide, methane, sea ice parameters, vegetation greenness (NDVI), and temperature. We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable. Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. Conclusion: Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.

DOI 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
Published in International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (Volume 6, Issue 1, June 2022)
Page(s) 13-34
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Climate Change, Degassing, Fractionation, Isotope, Outgassing, Productivity

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    Clive Hambler, Peter Alan Henderson. (2022). Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics. International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 6(1), 13-34. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

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    Clive Hambler; Peter Alan Henderson. Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics. Int. J. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. 2022, 6(1), 13-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

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    AMA Style

    Clive Hambler, Peter Alan Henderson. Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics. Int J Atmos Oceanic Sci. 2022;6(1):13-34. doi: 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13,
      author = {Clive Hambler and Peter Alan Henderson},
      title = {Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics},
      journal = {International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences},
      volume = {6},
      number = {1},
      pages = {13-34},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijaos.20220601.13},
      abstract = {Background: The seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually ascribed to the seasonality of Northern Hemisphere vegetation, and the seasonal cycle of methane is usually ascribed to seasonal removal by the hydroxyl radical. Objective: We test an alternative, that the cycles of these greenhouse gases might be linked to sea ice dynamics. Method: Time-series analysis of carbon dioxide, methane, sea ice parameters, vegetation greenness (NDVI), and temperature. We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable. Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. Conclusion: Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.},
     year = {2022}
    }
    

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    T1  - Temperature, Carbon Dioxide and Methane May Be Linked Through Sea Ice Dynamics
    AU  - Clive Hambler
    AU  - Peter Alan Henderson
    Y1  - 2022/06/27
    PY  - 2022
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
    T2  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
    JF  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
    JO  - International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
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    EP  - 34
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2640-1150
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20220601.13
    AB  - Background: The seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide is usually ascribed to the seasonality of Northern Hemisphere vegetation, and the seasonal cycle of methane is usually ascribed to seasonal removal by the hydroxyl radical. Objective: We test an alternative, that the cycles of these greenhouse gases might be linked to sea ice dynamics. Method: Time-series analysis of carbon dioxide, methane, sea ice parameters, vegetation greenness (NDVI), and temperature. We consider a variable that lags another can not be causal of the leading variable. Results: Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. Conclusion: Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.
    VL  - 6
    IS  - 1
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

  • Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Pisces Conservation Ltd, Everton, United Kingdom

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